According to a current study covering 1160 for sale and 148 rental apartments in the secondary market of Tashkent, Uzbekistan, the Golden Residential Index of Tashkent went down 3.3% (20.93 ounces of gold to buy the average apartment), implying a downward shift of the market. Such a trend is expected to sustain in the near future partially due to fading purchase incentives in Tashkent.

In January 2011, average prices of 1- and 2-room apartments experienced modest drops of 2.56% and 3.84% respectively, whereas 3-room apartments slumped by 10.83% and that of 4-room apartments cut down 9.23%. In addition to that, buyer expectations in the year 2011 are another low blow for the market.

Tashkent Real Estate Market Report, January 2011

As per seasonally adjusted two-month forecast, based on two years of data, average prices of 1-, 2-, 3- and 4-room apartments are expected to fall.

Pricing strategy

In accordance with the sample investigated for this report, basic parameters of residential property in the secondary market of Tashkent forms as follows (with 95% Confidence Interval):

No.of rooms Average living space* 75% of sale offers below Average price per sq.m*
1-room 35 - 36 sq.m $17,000 $446 - 468
2-room 52 - 53 sq.m $27,000 $443 - 480
3-room 70 - 72 sq.m $36,000 $438 - 461
4-room 84 - 91 sq.m $54,500 $434 - 476

Pricing of apartments are strongly correlated with sq.m, as is inferred by the regression analysis. In accordance with which, over 60% of offer prices can be are tied to available space.

Pricing per sq.m

It should be noted that an interval between price per sq.m in zone 1 and zone 2 has shrunk and constitutes $561 and $535 respectively. Average price per sq.m in zone 3 reaches $414.

Rent

According to the current report 1-room apartments are most rent-attractive, and 4-room apartments are the least profitable for landlords as in GRM analysis, which states years of rent fees to buy the average relevant apartment.

  1-room 2-room 3-room 4-room
GRM 6.2 years 7.2 years 7.4 years 9.5 years

Rent fees in Tashkent

1 - Room Apartments

Lower limit Upper limit Mean Change (%) YTD change (%) Rent fee range
$15,526 $16,077 $15,802 -2.56% N/A $182 - 242

Average price of 1-room apartments in Tashkent

Allocation of prices of 1-room apartments in Tashkent

Zone

Lower limit Upper limit Mean Change (%) YTD change (%)
Zone 1 $18,057 $20,777 $19,412 -1.71% N/A
Zone 2 $16,434 $17,895 $17,165 -5.13% N/A
Zone 3 $14,953 $15,443 $15,198 -2.69% N/A

2 - Room Apartments

Lower limit Upper limit Mean Change (%) YTD change (%) Rent fee range
$23,027 $24,113 $23,570 -3.84% N/A $247 - 296

Average price of 2-room apartments in Tashkent

Allocation of prices of 2-room apartments in Tashkent

Zone

Lower limit Upper limit Mean Change (%) YTD change (%)
Zone 1 $30,213 $33,184 $31,698 -4.69% N/A
Zone 2 $26,186 $28,034 $27,110 -0.51% N/A
Zone 3 $20,588 $21,366 $20,977 -2.55% N/A

3 - Room Apartments

Lower limit Upper limit Mean Change (%) YTD change (%) Rent fee range
$30,977 $32,672 $31,825 -10.83% N/A

$326 - 390

3_room_average_price.png

Allocation of prices of 3-room apartments in Tashkent

Zone Lower limit Upper limit Mean Change (%) YTD change (%)
Zone 1 $40,420 $43,763 $42,091 -14.43% N/A
Zone 2 $33,173 $36,877 $35,295 -14.28% N/A
Zone 3 $27,142 $28,356 $27,749 -1.41% N/A

4 - Room Apartments

Lower limit Upper limit Mean Change (%) YTD change (%) Rent fee range
$38,458 $42,261 $40,359 -9.23% N/A

Average price of 4-room apartments in Tashkent

Allocation of prices of 4-room apartments in Tashkent

Zone Lower limit Upper limit Mean Change (%) YTD change (%)
Zone 1 $52,269 $58,291 $55,280 -5.39% N/A
Zone 2 $48,423 $52,529 $50,476 -1.19% N/A
Zone 3 $32,294 $34,145 $33,220 -2.12% N/A

Forecast

1 room apartment market forecast, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

2 room apartment market forecast, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

3 room apartment market forecast, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

4 room apartment market forecast, Tashkent, Uzbekistan